Good Sunday morning everyone! A couple distinct areas of morning convection are draped across portions of the Northern Plains as of 8:30am CDT. The first impacting eastern ND, northeastern SD, and northwestern MN. The other hangs back drifting south across western SD. There is also some scattered shower/storm development occurring in eastern SD.
Areas of heavier showers and storms will continue to impact portions of the region today, mainly across SD into western MN. Shown below are probability maps from the SPC showing 40% thunderstorm probabilities during specific timeframes. The best chance for storms exist across eastern SD into southwestern MN through this evening.
Here are some timestamps for the locations of showers and storms through the rest of the day: Morning convection across eastern ND and northwestern MN is expected to slowly weaken through the rest of the morning into early afternoon. Elsewhere, the area of moderate rains in western SD will continue to sag southward and eventually more eastward later this afternoon across southern SD. Scattered storm development will continue across eastern SD through the remainder of the day with far western MN receiving these storms as well heading into the early afternoon hours. By 7pm CDT this evening, a substantial pocket of showers and storms will likely be ongoing across portions of eastern SD and western MN with intensities lessening heading into the late evening and overnight hours.
Here’s the HRRR simulated radar where the timestamps were taken from, which runs through 1pm CDT this evening.
NAM3km simulated far from 1am CDT Monday through 7am CDT Tuesday: Lighter rains with possibly some embedded heavier storms will likely continue to impact portions of eastern SD and central/southern MN through the night into the morning hours Monday. A few bands of wrap-around rains (associated with the low pressure system) will work into the southern portions of MN during the morning hours with some isolated showers and storms persisting across eastern SD and central MN. This leftover convection will work eastward through the day Monday, eventually lifting out of the area late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. A new disturbance lifting out of the Rockies will bring increased rain chances to the Western Dakotas, especially western SD, late Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Total rainfall through 7am CDT Monday is shown below. Locally heavy rains are expected across portions of the area today and tonight, mainly in SD, western MN, and far southeastern ND. Areas under persistent heavier showers and storms may observe flash flooding.
Here’s a 7-day total rainfall forecast from the European Model: The majority of the heaviest rains will stay confined to SD, far southeastern ND, and western MN through this timespan. Some of the rain in southeastern ND has already fallen. A large portion of ND (except southern ND) will likely stay relatively dry through much of the week as most of this storm system is exiting the area.
A cold front passing through the region today has dropped temperatures in most places, though some compressional heating will likely keep southern MN in the low 80s while elsewhere will stay in the 70s. Temperatures will increase slightly as we head into the middle part of the work week. Overnight temperatures in the 40s and 50s will be common behind this cold front through Wednesday morning.
Here’s a look at dew points over the next four days: A drastic decline in humidity should be expected today first across ND and then for a majority of SD for tomorrow. After this front passes through, drier air will drape itself across the Northern Plains.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days: Stronger winds are likely across a majority of the Dakotas today, especially in southwest SD, as the cold front pushes through the region. Winds will gradually subside with building surface high pressure Tuesday before a slight uptick occurs again in the western Dakotas for Wednesday.
Here’s a look at the city charts for Minneapolis, MN / Bismarck, ND / Fargo, ND / Sioux Falls, SD for the next 10 days.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!