Good evening everyone! The area remains dry as of 4:40pm MDT, but we’ll begin to work another disturbance into the far western portions of NE and KS over the next couple of hours. Scattered storms have fired across central CO and southeastern WY in association with this disturbance. Around 7pm MDT these areas of scattered storms will begin to work into the Nebraska Panhandle and eventually far western KS around 11pm MDT. Due to a lack of strong upper-level winds in the area this evening as well as decreased daytime heating, storm coverage will begin to dwindle as these scattered storms push across the CO/KS border. During the remainder of the night, most areas of showers and storms will fade with only an area of showers and storms likely remaining across southwestern KS by 9am MDT Saturday morning (end of radar loop below). This area of convection will likely continue to progress eastward into south-central KS during the late morning hours Saturday.
Looking ahead to Saturday afternoon and evening, another disturbance will work into the Western Plains behind this evening’s disturbance. This disturbance will likely prove to be more aggressive, however, with the threat for some strong storms as it progresses eastward into the area during the late afternoon and evening hours. Additional details regarding this event are discussed in the updated Severe Storm Outlook shown below. Storm intensity will weaken as it pushes eastward across the rest of NE and KS Saturday night into Sunday morning.
HRRR simulated radar from 12pm MDT Saturday through 12am MDT Sunday: Storm development is expected across eastern CO and far western NE between 2-4pm MDT in an environment of modest instability and wind shear. Storms will migrate eastward through the remainder of the afternoon, evening, and early night across western NE/KS with some becoming strong to perhaps severe. Models begin to differ through the rest of Saturday night into Sunday morning across the area, with an example being the NAM3km only continuing convection across southern KS by 6am MDT Sunday. The HRRR and NSSL are more aggressive with their approach in keeping shower and storm activity progressing eastward across central/eastern NE as well. These details will need to be ironed out as the event nears heading into tomorrow.
Here’s a look at total rainfall from high-resolution data through 12am MDT Sunday: Rainfall past this timeframe was excluded due to model uncertainty/differences. Some areas may miss out on these rains, even in the circled region. Rainfall may be underdone in far southwestern KS pending early Saturday morning showers and storms.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!