Good Friday afternoon!
A current look at radar shows that we are seeing some of the last few showers working out of the state and into SW MO:
For the rest of the evening, we think much of the state can stay dry. We are watching for storms to start working into W KS by sundown, as these storms will be the start of a cluster that is going to work its way across the state, mainly impacting the N half of the state. Below is simulated radar from 4 PM CT this evening until 10 PM CT:
Our attention turns to the overnight hours and early tomorrow as we are watching a storm cluster to evolve, mainly in the North Central/ North Eastern portions of the state. Below is simulated radar from 1 AM CT Sat morning until 1 PM CT tomorrow. We want to clarify, simulated radar is not meant to be specific down to your exact city and this is more of a look at trends/overall ideas. We do think that this cluster could be a little more robust in the northern part of the state in the overnight and morning hours compared to what is being modeled:
Tomorrow afternoon we think we can see some scattered showers and storms linger around the E third of the state. As we work into the evening on Saturday, we are watching two areas in particular that could see some storm activity. The area in NW Kansas could see more scattered storms, to where data is hinting at more of a line that can form in S Central parts of KS. Data is pretty inconsistent right now even within 24 hours, so this will need to be fine tuned in an update tomorrow:
A look at precipitation guidance out through Saturday evening. As mentioned, we think the overwhelming majority of the precipitation in the state comes in the black circle during the overnight hours tonight and into your Saturday morning before eventually sliding off into MO .The heaviest amounts look to fall in NE KS as this is where we have the best set up for heavy rain potential. Late morning/ early afternoon we can see some lingering showers and storms from this cluster, mainly in the E portions of KS. Tomorrow evening we are watching for two areas of potential storms, one in NW KS and another in S Central KS (area circled in red). If there is one area that could see some more precip than what is being shown below, it would be NW/ N Central KS. There is support to see some storms fire up tonight that are associated with this cluster, and there is also the risk for some storms Sat evening in NW KS. Models can sometimes underplay rain events during these clusters, so a general 0.75 to 1.5+ inches is certainly possible where the heaviest storms set up. This is not saying that everyone in the black circle will see that amount, but the risk is there to see higher totals than what is shown vs lower totals :
As always, please do not hesitate to reach out to reach out to us at [email protected] ! Enjoy the rest of your Friday!