Good Sunday morning everyone! Most people are waking up to plentiful sunshine across the area as of 9:15am CDT. A few cloud decks have begun to work into our southern areas due to an upper-level low south of the region. Some smoke is also present in eastern NE/northwestern KS that originated from Canadian wildfires.
Here is the general idea of what to expect regarding today’s weather: A large majority of the region will remain dry once again today with plentiful sunshine as surface high pressure located over IA dominates our pattern. An upper-level low positioned over the Southern Plains will continue to pump Gulf of Mexico moisture northward today. This will add to the instability driven by daytime heating across our southern areas as well as a stationary boundary draped in the region. Hit or miss storms are expected to develop due to these circumstances after 1pm CDT across southeast KS and southwest MO. Areas of showers/storms will persist through the afternoon and evening hours before gradually diminishing in coverage as the sun sets. By 11pm CDT tonight, most storms will have diminished with only a few isolated showers/storms possibly continuing through the nighttime hours into Monday morning. Severe weather remains unlikely again today but I can’t rule out locally heavy downpours, gusty winds, and small hail to accompany some of these storms. Total rainfall through 12am CDT tonight is also shown below.
Here’s a simulated radar through 12am CDT Monday for today’s pop-up storms:
As previously stated, an upper-level low from the Southern Plains will lift northward into the region Monday morning bringing widespread rain chances first to KS and western/southern MO, then eventually southeastern NE and southwest IA late Monday evening into Tuesday morning. The rains likely won’t be as widespread in NE and IA. Scattered storms will enter southern KS/southwest MO ~8am CDT Monday morning before lifting into the rest of KS/western MO Monday afternoon and evening. The shower/storm activity will likely weaken somewhat overnight as it spreads into portions of NE and IA. Additional flare-ups in convection are anticipated heading into Tuesday afternoon across KS, central/western MO, southeast NE, and southern IA. NAM3km simulated radar from 8am CDT Monday through 8am CDT Tuesday is shown below.
Rainfall forecast over the next 7 days: Confidence continues to build in regards to beneficial rains across the eastern 2/3rds of KS, MO, and portions of southern NE this week. Over the coming week, widespread 1-2″+ of rain is likely for the areas mentioned previously. There is less confidence for the northern portions of the region. I’m skeptical of the rains this model puts down for southern IA as the German ICON model’s solution indicates less rains. The opportunity is there for southern IA to receive more needed rain, but trends will need to be watched over the next couple of days to pinpoint these rains.
High temperature guidance over the next four days: Daytime highs in the mid 80s to low 90s will be prevalent across the area today. Highs will begin to decline as the upper-level low lifts northward into the region beginning Monday.
Low temperature guidance over the next four mornings: Most locations are expected to drop back into the 60s for lows Monday morning, though, a few area may fail to fall below 70 in southern KS. Overnight lows will increase slightly heading into Tuesday morning.
Dew points over the next four days: There will be quite a difference regarding humidity west to east across the Central Plains. The far Western Plains will have lower humidity levels through most of the period while central KS/NE eastward with have moist air lifting northward.
Wind forecast over the next four days: Winds will remain generally calm over the Eastern Plains while the Western Plains likely observes some gusty winds today.
Here are some city charts regarding temperatures and winds over the next 10 days for select cities across the Central Plains.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!