Good morning everyone! Virtually the whole region is cloud-free this morning with an exception being smoke hanging over the skies, especially in MN. Areas of smoke originating from wildfires in Western Canada are likely to persist across the Northern Plains through the remainder of the weekend.
A few record highs are likely to be set through the remainder of the weekend as widespread upper 90s to low 100s take hold across the Dakotas. A cold front will drop temperatures beginning Monday and especially for Tuesday in the region. Overnight lows will also fall slightly after the passage of the cold front early work week.
Along with the heat, very dry air conditions will persist in the Western Dakotas through the rest of the weekend. With wind gusts picking up to 30mph, there is an increasing risk for fire danger. A few Red Flag Warnings have been issued in western SD due to the low relative humidity and strong winds. Air quality alerts also cover the whole state of MN (not shown in the second graphic below). Please limit your time outdoors to protect yourself from the poor air quality.
The next chance for rain won’t come until late Sunday night into Monday morning as a frontal boundary pushes eastward into western ND. With the recent dryness in this area, I remain skeptical on coverage of storms as rain may have a difficult time reaching the ground before evaporating. Regardless, the chance is there for some light rains heading into Monday. The cold front will push eastward into Tuesday with rain chances increasing for the eastern Dakotas into portions of MN. The simulated radar graphic shown below is from 4pm CDT Sunday through 1pm CDT Monday.
Here’s a look at total rainfall from the European Model over the next 7 days: Decent rains may be hard to come by this upcoming week as the frontal boundary crossing the Northern Plains this week looks to be moisture-starved. An upper-level low across the central/southern Plains may lift far enough north to bring some rains to eastern ND and southern MN mid-week.
Here’s a look at dew points over the next four days: There will be a stark contrast between the western Dakotas and the eastern Dakotas/MN during a majority of this period. Humidity levels will be low across the western Dakotas, especially behind the cold front, while humidity will be elevated to the south and east of the boundary.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days:
Here are some city charts regarding temperatures, precipitation, and winds over the next 10 days for select cities across the Northern Plains. The front will only bring short-term relief as more warmth will build into the region next weekend.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!