Good Saturday morning everyone! I wanted to start off discussing yesterday’s observed precipitation. Over the last 24 hours, very localized pockets of 1-3″ of rain fell over portions of southern KS into central/southern MO. A thin, broken line of showers developed over eastern IA that brought up to 0.5″ of rain in a few spots.
Here is the general idea of what to expect regarding today’s weather. As mentioned below surface pressure will dominate for most across the area, suppressing rain risks. A stationary boundary still exists in southern MO leading to storm chances this afternoon/evening before weakening late evening due to daytime heating diminishing. Severe weather remains unlikely but I can’t rule out some localized heavy downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. A small pop-up shower may develop elsewhere but is highly unlikely.
Forecast radar through 6am CDT Sunday: Pop-up storms are expected to develop shortly after 1pm CDT across the southern third of MO, lasting through the remainder of the afternoon and evening with a majority of the storm activity dissipating by 9pm CDT. A few stray showers/storms may persist into the overnight hours across far southern MO.
Total rainfall through 8am CDT Sunday: Due to the hit or miss nature of the storms in southern MO this afternoon/evening, some areas will stay dry. Locations that are impacted by these storms can pick up a quick 0.25-0.75″ of rain with very localized higher amounts of 1″+ possible.
Sunday will remain quite inactive across a majority of the region with some widely scattered storm chances working into the region late afternoon overnight into Monday morning across the southern portions of KS and southwest MO. This will be the start of a better chance of rain to build into the region as an upper-level low lifts northward out of the Southern Plains. Simulated radar from 8am CDT Sunday through 8am CDT Monday:
As previously stated, an upper-level low from the Southern Plains will lift northward into the region early work week bringing more widespread rain chances first to central/eastern KS and western MO, then even southern NE and possibly IA Monday night into Tuesday as the low interacts with an approaching front from the Northern Plains.
Rainfall forecast over the next 7 days: Confidence is building that western/southern MO and eastern KS can observe a beneficial rain from this storm system early work week. There is less confidence for these rains across NE and IA but trends will need to be watched over the next couple of days to pinpoint these rains.
High temperature guidance over the next four days: A vast majority of the region will observe highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s today and tomorrow. An upper-level low will lift northward into the region Monday, dropping temperatures due to increased precipitation chances Monday and Tuesday.
Low temperature guidance over the next four days: Low temperatures are expected to dip into the 60s for most locations Sunday and Monday morning before warmer temperatures lift northward during the day Monday.
Dew points over the next four days: Humidity levels will build from south to north across the region in association with the upper-level low late Sunday into early next week.
Wind forecast over the next four days: Winds will remain generally calm over the Eastern Plains with a few gusty winds possible in the Western Plains today and tomorrow.
Here’s some city charts regarding temperatures and winds over the next 10 days for select cities across the Central Plains.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!