Good Saturday afternoon!
A look at current radar shows we are dealing with a widespread system encompassing a good portion of N ND as it works its way East. Right now there is no real severe threats with this system as it has certainly diminished in intensity from earlier:
A look at the past 24 hours of rainfall based on radar estimation. These values in N ND are not totally accurate as this product does lag with precip values whenever there is precip currently falling. In this case, we have seen much more rainfall than what it being shown in North Central ND:
We think that this area of precip is going to continue to weaken as it marches further East. A look at simulated radar from 1 PM CT until 10 PM CT tonight shows that our precip will continue to impact the Northern half of the state. We do want to note that while this model is doing the best vs what is showing up on radar, we are still seeing a much wider area of precip than what this model is suggesting. Most data has not been as agressive as what is actually playing out:
Highs today look to be in the upper 70s/ low 80s (lighter oranges) across much of the state, the one exception being SW ND. Mid to upper 80s (darker reds) can be expected in that portion of the state:
Overnight and for much of the day tomorrow we are thinking that most of the state can stay dry with the best chances for precip coming in the W part of the state. One way to visualize this is by looking at upper level energy *this is not simulated radar*. Below is a loop from 1 AM CT Sunday morning until 7 PM CT Sunday evening. We see that the majority of the strongest upper elvers energy (darker yellows/oranges/reds) is strongest in W ND and slowly becomes weaker as it works its way E:
We can see this same thing on our simulated radar from 7 AM CT Sunday morning until 7 PM CT Sunday evening. Most activity Sunday comes in the W part of the state as we have these pulses of upper level energy in the area:
Tomorrow’s highs look to be in the upper 70s to low 80s across the state. We think this model is a touch too cool, especially in NE ND. With that said, it will certainly be a cooler day than some of the days we have seen earlier this summer:
A look at rainfall guidance out through 7 PM CT Sunday evening. Just as a reminder, these precip images are not meant to be “backyard specific”. We are more illustrating the areas where we think the best chances for precip. Current thought is that the area circled in red will see the majority of precip come from the system we are seeing on radar right now. We think that what is being shown is a good depiction of our thoughts, 0.25 to 0.5 inches with some spots receiving slightly more amounts. The area circled in black will see most of its precip in the form of more scattered activity tomorrow. We do not think this is going to be an equal rainfall chance and not everyone in this area is going to get precip, but as mentioned in the post the best chance for precip overnight and into tomorrow comes in the W half of the state:
As always, please get in touch with us at [email protected] with any questions that you have! Have a great rest of your Saturday!