8-10-18 Northern Plains: Hot and dry weekend… watching for enhanced fire weather conditions. B.

Today’s Video: 

Good Friday morning everyone! A quiet start once again this morning as upper-level high pressure dominates the area. Under this high, dry and hot conditions will prevail with additional 100F+ readings likely today: 

A few record highs could be set the next few days as widespread low 100s are likely Saturday and Sunday across the Western Dakotas. 

Along with the heat, very dry air conditions will persist in the Western Dakotas over the weekend. With wind gusts picking up to 20-25 MPH Saturday and 30-35 MPH on Sunday, there is the increasing risk for fire danger this weekend. 

Here is a look at the winds and wind directions the next 4 days: 

Here’s a look at dew points the next 4 days: 

The next chance for rain will come early next week with a frontal boundary and upper-level low (ULL) working into the area. Initially, a few scattered storms in NW North Dakota early Monday, but skeptical of these producing much rainfall. The better chance will be as we work into overnight Monday and Tuesday as the front starts to work into a more moisture rich environment and sees influence from the ULL. This could lead to reasonable rainfall risks especially in SE Minnesota. Differences remain between the GFS/Euro on rainfall after early Wednesday. The GFS quickly pushes rain out and the Euro lingers rain into Thursday. We lean towards the slightly drier solution right now, as we expect the ULL to trend south following the passage of the frontal boundary:

Here’s a look at total rainfall from the GFS/Euro over the next 7 days: 

Note, the GFS does have the tendency to overdo rainfall a bit, so while we favor it’s evolution, it may be a bit robust with the frontal rainfall. We’ll be sure to update on these risks as we head into early next week. 

Behind the front, a few cooler days are certainly likely before heat returns as we work into late next week and the weekend! Here’s a look at the city charts for Fergus Falls, Minneapolis, Pierre and Bismarck for the next 10 days!

If you have any questions, do not hesitate to reach out via [email protected]! Have a great day!