Good Monday afternoon! A weak disturbance continues to push ESE across the southern portions of ND as of 1:30pm CDT. Most recent model guidance now suggests the showers and embedded thunderstorms associated with this disturbance stick around this afternoon before completely diminishing by 7-8pm CDT this evening.
Two distinct clusters of showers and storms likely develop this evening into the overnight with one developing along the shared border between MT/SD between 3-6pm CDT diving ESE during the evening into overnight hours across central SD. The other will fire in southern SK/far northeast MT before lifting southeast into northwestern ND between 9-11pm CDT. I expect the ND storms to follow along the moisture gradient/upper-level flow that runs from northwest ND to southeast ND unlike what some models depict with a west to east movement. Each area of storms could contain hail, gusty winds, and/or an isolated tornado. Heading into the morning hours Tuesday, there are a lot of discrepancies with how the models handle these storms across the eastern portions of the Dakotas, The WRF NSSL wants to completely fade the two areas of storms as they approach the eastern Dakotas while the NAM 3km, WRF ARW, and HRRR models continue morning convection in these areas. In this instance I would have to side with the latter as upper level energy remains in the area coupled with a decent low-level jet should continue at least some morning convection in the region. Morning showers and storms across the eastern Dakotas will dive southeast into western MN in the late morning while weakening across the state. HRRR simulated radar from 6pm CDT through 5am CDT Tuesday:
Rainfall through 7pm CDT Tuesday:
Elsewhere will remain relatively dry through the course of the Tuesday evening until another round of storms with another chance for severe weather associated with a cold front lifts into ND late Tuesday into early Wednesday quickly moving east across the state and possibly making it to northwestern MN Wednesday morning. Damaging winds are the main concern with these storms.
NSSL simulated radar from 7pm CDT Tuesday through 7am CDT Wednesday:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out via [email protected]! Have a great rest of your day!