Good evening! This will be a quick update regarding tonight’s storms. Model guidance continues to have little agreement with how the evening evolves regarding the two areas of storms. Regardless, a disturbance will drop from southern SK/far northeastern MT into northwestern ND between 9-11pm CDT and will follow along the moisture gradient/upper-level flow from northwest to southeast ND (a solution models have caught onto recently). Some recent model guidance is not very supportive of the second cluster of storms pushing into western SD and developing it further than a couple isolated showers and storms. Given the low-level jet and upper-level energy, I favor the HRRR solution which has a cluster of storms impacting portions of western SD and later than originally projected (~9pm CDT). These storms will push east across northern SD overnight, possibly interacting with the ND disturbance during the early morning Tuesday. While severe weather will remain isolated I can’t rule out hail, gusty winds, and/or an isolated tornado with these storms. Morning convection will be prevalent across the eastern Dakotas into western MN while gradually weakening through the course of the morning. Simulated radar through 9am CDT Tuesday:
Total rainfall through 9am CDT Tuesday: The HRRR’s total rain fits the orientation from earlier updates with 0.25-0.75″ and 0.2-0.4″ of rain with locally higher amounts across the northern portions of SD and northern/eastern ND respectively. Morning convection in western MN will generally drop between 0.1″ and 0.25″ of rain.
Have a great rest of your evening!