Good Tuesday afternoon!
A look at radar shows that we are seeing rain and storms in the SE parts of SD and some light rain trying to work into extreme NW ND:
We think that we can continue to see just the very edge of these storm cluster chances during the night tonight and into the day tomorrow. Here is a look at simulated radar from 7 PM CT tonight until 7 AM CT tomorrow . These storms are coming from the northwest as they are following the flow over top a ridge that is situated in the SW US. We can see this direction of flow by looking at our upper level pattern and seeing the track these clusters will take. The current positioning of the ridge looks to bring the northern edge of this pattern into SD, mainly keeping the chances of clusters away from ND. This is a pattern similar to what we saw a few weeks ago with the frequent storm cluster chances, however now our ridge is slightly further S, pulling those chances further S into the Central Plains rather than the Northern Plains:
Tomorrow’s highs should be in the upper 80s for the western halves of the states and low to mid 80s for the eastern halves of ND/SD:
We think during the day tomorrow most of the Dakota’s can stay dry, but we cannot totally rule out some scattered activity mainly focused in the S parts of SD. Tomorrow evening looks to hold the potential for some more activity to enter the W portions of the states around the later evening hours. Below is a modeled simulation of radar from 2 PM CT until 7 PM CT.
A look at rainfall guidance out until 7 PM CT Wednesday. We do think this model could be underplaying totals in the area circled, especially Southern parts of SD as this is an area where we could see a little more influence of that northwest flow. As we can see, the further N and E you go into ND the more likely you are to stay dry as scattered rain chances area much less likely:
As always, if you have any questions please do not hesitate to reach out to us at [email protected] ! Enjoy the rest of your Tuesday!