Good Tuesday afternoon!
A look at radar shows that we are pretty much dry across the state:
We think that our main threat for storm clusters will come in the E part of the state. Here is a look at simulated radar from 7 PM CT tonight until 7 AM CT tomorrow . These storms are coming from the northwest as they are following the flow over top a ridge that is situated in the SW US. We can see this direction of flow by looking at our upper level pattern and seeing the track these clusters will take. The current positioning of the ridge looks to bring the storms into E KS:
Tomorrow’s highs should be in the upper 90s/low 100s for much of the state, the one exception being the upper NE corner as this area will have lower temperatures due to rain being present for chunks of the day:
We think during the day tomorrow our chance for some storms coming via that northwest flow should be restricted to the KS/MO border. We think there can be some pop up, scattered activity in the central and western parts of the state, but right now this does not look to have the cluster potential compared to what we could see tomrorow morning and again in the evening in the E quarter of KS. Below is simulated radar from 1 PM CT tomorrow until 7 PM CT:
A look at rainfall guidance out until 7 PM CT Wednesday. We do think this model could be underplaying totals in the E part of the state as we think we could see totals closer to 0.25 to 0.75 with this potential cluster tomorrow morning and then again in the evening. We do think the model is doing a good job picking up on the potential for some scattered activity in the Central/ Western parts of KS tomorrow. We think the area circled is where we see the strongest risks for severe weather with these clusters, as well as where the heaviest of rains end up falling. While this image only goes out until tomorrow evening, we are watching for the potential of a strong storm cluster late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning that could produce some areas that receive 2 inches or more. Some spots could see 3 to 5 inches of rain over the next couple days with these storm clusters hitting the same spots with multiple waves:
As always, if you have any questions please do not hesitate to reach out to us at [email protected] ! Enjoy the rest of your Tuesday!