Good afternoon everyone! This will be a brief update regarding today’s storm threat. Morning convection has cleared out of KS with a few stray showers impacting northwest NE as of 12:45pm CDT. Strong thunderstorms are likely to fire within close proximity to these stray showers over the next few hours. Shown below is an updated version of today’s severe weather threat. Low-level clouds have somewhat eroded across western NE and northwest KS with southwest KS observing cloud-free skies at this time. These are the areas I’m pinpointing for strong storms to fire this afternoon as the environment in these areas becomes destabilized with some some severe weather ingredients coming together.
Simulated radar through 6am MDT Monday: Storm initiation is expected after 1pm MDT this afternoon across the NE panhandle, building southwestward into eastern CO within a couple hours of initiation. Storms will dive southeastward into portions of central NE after 3pm MDT and western KS after 4-5pm MDT this evening. During the evening and overnight hours, storms will continue their trek southeast likely congealing into an MCS (Mesoscale Convection System) and moving through portions of western/central KS. At this point in time, it appears far eastern NE into far northeast KS remains unscathed by these storms. By 4am MDT, most storm activity will have since exited the region to the south with some isolated showers and storms remaining across southern NE into central KS through the morning hours Monday.
Total rainfall through 6am MDT Monday: Localized 2″+ may fall in a few spots within the circled region. Due to the nature of these storms, some areas may miss out on the storms. Far eastern NE into far northeast KS likely receive little rain while rains are likely overdone in eastern KS.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out via [email protected]! Have a great rest of your day!