Good Saturday morning! In the last 24 hours many locations in western KS into western and far eastern NE picked up over 0.5″ of rain with a few isolated pockets of nearly 3″ falling in western KS/NE.
A few areas are still picking up rain as of 6:40am CDT with a swath of heavier showers and embedded thunderstorms impacting far eastern NE, southwest IA, and northwest MO. Another cluster of rain with a heavier cell can be found in southwest NE pushing southeast.
Today’s latest severe storm outlook: This will be a similar setup to yesterday’s event with areas across western NE/KS under threat for more strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. Morning cloud cover will erode/push out of the Western Plains into the early afternoon hours, destabilizing the environment. CAPE values (potential energy for storms to work with) will increase along with vertical wind shear, steep lapse rates (change in temperature with altitude), and sufficient lift will lead to storm development this afternoon. Here’s a graphic of the areas under threat for today:
Simulated radar through 9pm MDT this evening: Storm initiation is expected around 2pm MDT across southeast WY and east-central CO that will push ESE through the remainder of the afternoon, reaching far western NE after 4pm CDT and eventually northwest KS after 6pm CDT. Storms will likely remain more discrete initially posing a large hail, damaging wind, and tornado threat before clustering into a possible MCS across western KS this evening into tonight with more of a hail and wind threat. As for the ongoing morning convection, the cluster in southwest NE will likely trek into north-central KS with additional development possible in eastern KS through the morning and early afternoon hours before either gradually weakening or pushing out of the area. The swath of rain in eastern NE will persist through the remainder of the morning into the afternoon hours across portions of southern IA and northern MO while slowly weakening.
Simulated radar from 9pm MDT this evening through 1pm MDT Monday: The storms across western KS will continue to dive southeast through the evening and overnight hours with storm activity still ongoing across portions of eastern KS into northern MO during the morning Sunday. Morning storms will also move southeast, exiting MO shortly after 12pm CDT Sunday. A very brief lull in activity is expected across the area before we work in more clusters of showers and storms, possibly severe, in very similar locations to today’s severe weather threat (western NE/KS) late Sunday afternoon. These storms may contain large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes as well before diving south out of the area late Sunday night/early Monday morning.
Total rainfall through 1pm CDT Monday: Areas that observe heavy thunderstorms late today and tomorrow (western KS/NE) can receive 1-2″ with locally 2″+ possible. Rains are expected to be lighter across the rest of the region with a slight uptick in amounts likely in far eastern NE, southwest IA, and northern MO. This model is likely overdoing rainfall amounts in these areas (especially northern MO) but I can’t rule out 0.5-1″+ in some locations. Many areas across northern IA will stay dry.
Euro model 7-day rainfall: A majority of the rains through this period will be confined to NE, KS, and central/southern MO with light rains expected in IA and northern MO.
Temperatures over the next four days: NE and IA will remain very seasonable through the period with KS and MO becoming more seasonable late this weekend into early next week. Most areas Monday will have highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Low temperatures will also drop through early next week as the stationary boundary just south and west of the area dips south.
Dew points over the next four days: Humidity levels will drop as the we progress into early next week, especially across the northern and western areas.
Wind forecast over the next four days: Winds will remain generally light through the period.
Euro Model 10-day forecast for select cities across the Central Plains:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out via [email protected]! Have a great weekend!