Good afternoon! This update will cover today’s severe weather threat and its evolution through tonight. Today’s setup will be very similar to yesterday’s event, with locations further east possibly being impacted as well this evening/tonight. Areas expected to be impacted include western NE/KS during the evening hours then central/eastern KS during the late evening and overnight hours. Cloud cover over western KS/NE has eroded over the last several hours leading to the build-up of instability. CAPE, vertical wind shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient lift will all aid in today’s storm threat. Here’s an updated version of the Severe Storm Outlook: The threat expanded slightly further east since this morning’s update.
Simulated radar through 12pm MDT Sunday: Storm initiation is still expected across southeast WY and east-central CO between 1-2pm MDT gradually growing in coverage as it pushes into western NE after 3pm MDT. Eventually northwest KS will get into the action as these storms trek southeast into the state ~6pm MDT. Storms during the early to mid evening will likely remain more discrete, carrying a large hail and isolated tornado threat (especially western NE/far northwest KS) before clustering into a possible MCS across western/central KS this evening and overnight with more of a hail and wind threat. As the clock strikes midnight most storm activity will be placed over southern NE into central KS, continuing to dive ESE through the night. By 6am MDT remnants of this evening’s storm will be impacting portions of eastern KS, far southeast NE, and far western MO with additional development likely across northern MO and far southern IA. At 12pm MDT (end of this loop) most of the remaining showers and storms at this point will be over portions of MO.
Total rainfall through 7am CDT Sunday: Areas in southwest KS may also receive heavy storms through tonight with locally 1″+ of rain there as well.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out via [email protected]! Have a great rest of your day!