Good Saturday afternoon!
A check on radar shows that we are pretty much completely dry across the state with very light activity showing up in the NE and SW corners of ND:
We expect this to change as we work some precip into the state later this evening. Here is a simulated radar loop from 7 PM CT this evening until 7 AM CT Sunday. We think some precip can start to creep its way into the state from the SW and slowly work its way E. The heaviest of rains should stay in SD and Nebraska tonight:
Another way we look for precipitation potential is looking at modeled upper level energy. As shown below, we see higher areas of energy (darker shades of red) come into the state around ~8 PM CT tonight and slowly work W to E across the state during the overnight hours and tomorrow throughout the day. The simulated loop is from 7 PM CT this evening until 7 PM CT tomorrow evening:
We do think that precip will be heaviest in the E part of the state in the afternoon and evening hours. There is the possibility that a few of these cells are strong to severe in the PM hours, but this does not look to be anything widespread or highly likely. Flash flooding is possible if a few cells can sustain themselves for long periods of time and not move much. A look at modeled radar from Noon until 7 PM CT Sunday:
Highs tomorrow look to be in the low to mid 80s for much of the state, cooler where we feel more of an influence of the rain that will limit our highs for the day :
Rainfall guidance out through Sunday evening at 7 PM CT. We do think the area circled in red is one location where we could potentially see higher amounts than what the model is suggesting. We also think there could be a little more rain coverage near the MT/ND/SD border than what is being shown. Overall, this is not going to be a widespread rain for the entire state as the bulk of the precip will be focused further S and W in portions of SD and MN:
As always, if you have any questions please do not hesitate to reach out to us at [email protected] ! Enjoy the rest of your Saturday!