Today’s video:
Good Friday morning everyone! Here’s a brief synopsis of what to expect for today:
A majority of the region remains inactive this morning with mostly sunny skies across MN. Scattered clouds are draped across the western Dakotas with isolated showers/storms impacting portions of western SD as of 8:50am CDT. Through the remainder of the morning into the afternoon hours I expect this area of convection to work southeast along a moisture gradient in place across western SD.
Additional redevelopment is expected in southwest SD during the early-mid afternoon hours. Some of these storms could be strong to possibly severe as this region will have the highest instability, vertical wind shear, and moisture in all of the Northern Plains. Pockets of large hail and damaging winds are possible in southwest SD this afternoon and evening. These storms will also follow the moisture gradient in place in an ESE direction through the afternoon and evening with more rounds of storms possible late evening into the early overnight. A few isolated pop-up storms are also possible in portions of eastern ND/northern MN this afternoon and early evening as daytime heating builds into the region. A weak piece of upper-level energy will be the forcing mechanism for these isolated showers/storms.
Timeshot of the isolated pop-ups in ND and northern MN with scattered development across portions of western SD late this afternoon: Coverage-wise this is what is to be expected for the showers and storms this afternoon and evening.
Simulated radar from 12pm MDT Saturday through 12pm MDT Sunday: Most activity will work out of the area late tonight into Saturday morning before additional scattered storms fire in the western SD/far southwestern ND after 2pm MDT. Again, storms will push in a southeasterly direction through the afternoon and evening Saturday with coverage decreasing somewhat through the overnight with isolated showers and storms still remaining across portions of central/western SD Sunday morning.
Instability-driven storms are once again possible Saturday afternoon across eastern ND into MN (similar to today). Once we lose daytime heating these storms in eastern ND and MN will diminish.
Total rainfall through 12pm MDT Sunday: While I believe rainfall amounts may be overdone in southwest ND and western ND, this model highlights where a majority of the rains will fall. Pockets of 1″+ of rain are possible where the storms develop and track through this evening and with the storm chances in similar areas tomorrow afternoon into Sunday morning.
Total rainfall through the next 7 days depicts many receiving little rain thanks to high pressure positioned over the area during portions of the week. The best rain chances exist for western SD and portions of MN.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: Very cool weather will continue through the weekend with a majority observing highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the 50s. A few isolated locations may dip into the 40s.
Here’s a look at dew points over the next four days: Low humidity will encompass the region through the weekend.
Here’s a look at wind speeds over the next four days: Lighter winds will prevail through the period.
Here’s a look at high and low temperatures for select cities across the Northern Plains:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out via [email protected]! Have a great day!