Good afternoon everyone! We are currently tracking the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms to impact portions of the area (in particular the Western Plains) later this afternoon into the early nighttime hours. Shower and thunderstorm activity is ongoing across southwest NE with isolated showers spreading through north-central NE. Over the next several hours storm activity will ramp up even further across southwest NE while spreading into northwest KS. Here’s a synopsis of what to expect weather-wise the rest of today:
NAM3km Simulated radar through 12pm CDT Saturday morning: Ongoing convection in southwest NE will continue to get its act together over the next several hours while increasing in storm coverage as it dives south SSE in the western third of KS. These storms will push into northwestern KS around 4pm MDT before exiting southwest KS by 3am MDT Saturday morning. A large wind threat will accompany these storms after congealing into an MCS this evening across far southwest NE into western KS. It is important to note that another hi-res model, the HRRR is slower with the evolution of storms late this afternoon through tonight with storm activity ongoing through 6am MDT as well as further east across portions of central and southern KS. At this time I favor the NAM3km solution as it has model support and I expect a southward dive with the storms this evening and tonight. Morning convection will continue Saturday across eastern NE with more development possible during the morning hours in portions of eastern KS.
Total rainfall through 6am CDT Saturday: Many locations across the western third of KS will pick up 1-2″ of rain with locally 3″+ in areas that observe the heaviest thunderstorms. While rains will be lighter in NE, some pockets of 1-2″ of rain is possible. A large portion of eastern KS will remain unscathed by today/tonight’s storms before we work in storm activity Saturday morning.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out via [email protected]! Have a great rest of your day!