Good Sunday morning everyone! There are a few isolated showers and storms side-swiping northwest ND as of 10:15am CDT. This disturbance will be the region’s next shot at scattered showers and storms, possibly severe, later this afternoon.
Here’s a shot-by-shot timeframe of simulated radar in 4-hour increments: Morning convection skirting northern ND will continue east along a cold front pushing through the area. Between 2-4pm CDT additional showers and storms are expected to fire along the cold front stretching from central ND southward into central SD. During the remainder of the afternoon these storms will push east and by 8pm CDT will be pushing into northwest MN and eventually the rest of western MN with portions of the eastern Dakotas being affected by these storms. From the time of initiation through about 9pm-10pm CDT tonight the storms will have the potential to be severe with large hail and damaging winds possible given high instability, low-level moisture, and vertical wind shear . I can’t rule out an isolated tornado as well. During the early overnight hours these storms will begin to encounter a less favorable environment and commence weakening. I don’t believe these showers and storms totally die out overnight as I expect widely scattered storm activity to continue pushing east across MN and far eastern SD. By late morning Monday most activity will have diminished in eastern MN with a slight flare-up in activity again Monday afternoon across southeast MN. The rest of the region should stay mostly dry Monday.
Here’s a simulated radar for this event through 2am Tuesday morning:
Total rainfall through 7am CDT Monday:
Additional rains are possible late Tuesday across the western Dakotas and then the eastern Dakotas Wednesday morning. This disturbance will push east into MN late Wednesday morning/early afternoon bringing storm chances to portions of the state. Euro forecasted rainfall through the next 7 days:
Here’s a look at temperature guidance over the next four days: It will remain seasonable across a majority of ND and MN through this period with a slight uptick in temperatures across ND Tuesday. Another advancing cold front Wednesday will drop temperatures once again across the region.
Here’s a look at dew points over the next four days: Dew points will remain in the 60s today across a majority of the region before dropping behind the cold front later this evening into tomorrow across the Dakotas.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days: Gusty winds will follow along and behind the cold front today.
Here’s a look at the Euro Model 10-day forecast for select cities across the region:
Minneapolis, MN
Fargo, ND
Sioux Falls, SD
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out via [email protected]! Have a great rest of your weekend!