Good Saturday afternoon! This will be a quick update regarding this evening’s storm threats as well as the addition of KS based on afternoon data guidance. The stratus cloud deck situated over the eastern Dakotas has begun to erode with a cumulus field left in its place. The Western Plains will remain dry through early afternoon until storms begin to work in along the warm front into western NE ~3-4pm CDT. In their latest discussion, the SPC states that morning forcing mechanisms that would cause storm development were hard to find. Regardless, we expect additional scattered showers and storms to ignite in eastern WY/MT before lifting into the western Dakotas by 6pm CDT or shortly thereafter based on new model guidance. It will be during this time that these storms have the best chance at becoming strong to perhaps severe in the western Dakotas/NE with large hail and damaging winds as the main threats. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out given modest instability, wind shear, and low-level moisture. By 9pm CDT widely scattered showers/storms in eastern CO will trek into northwest KS while also at this time storms will begin their downward trend as the atmosphere becomes less conducive for storms. As we approach 7am CDT Sunday morning, most areas of showers and storms will have diminished with just a few isolated showers and storms possibly remaining in north-central KS and the central Dakotas. Here’s a simulation of the Northern Plains and Central Plains view of the storms through 7am CDT Sunday:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out via [email protected]! Have a great rest of your day!