Good Saturday morning everyone! A cloud deck remains in place across the eastern Dakotas into western/northern MN this morning. Precipitation is not expected to develop with these clouds and the next shot of showers and storms from the west will likely hold off until late this afternoon into the evening hours.
Here’s a synopsis of what to expect for the scattered showers and storms across the western Dakotas/NE this afternoon into tonight: Many ingredients including modest CAPE, high vertical wind shear, and low-level moisture are coming together this afternoon for a few strong storms to impact these areas. In addition to the threats discussed below, an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out with this setup.
HRRR simulated radar through 7am CDT Sunday morning: Storms will fire in far eastern WY/MT before pushing east into the western Dakotas/NE late this afternoon and evening. As these storms head southeast through late evening they will begin to encounter a weaker low-level jet and a more stable environment, contributing to a weakening trend that will occur tonight. A few leftover showers and storms are still possible in the eastern Dakotas/central NE by daybreak. A couple isolated showers and storms are also possible after 12pm CDT in the MN panhandle.
Another round of storms will push into the area starting with northern ND Sunday morning and transitioning into the eastern Dakotas/west-central NE after 4pm CDT Sunday. During the evening and overnight hours these showers and storms will push into western and central MN while gradually weakening. A few of these storms may be severe as well in the eastern Dakotas with hail and gusty winds. NAM3km simulated radar from 7am CDT Sunday through 4am CDT Monday:
Total rainfall through 7am CDT Sunday morning: Due to the scattered nature of the storms this evening, not everyone will receive rains in the western Dakotas/NE. Localized 0.75-1.5″ of rain is possible where it storms this evening into early night. Elsewhere, rains will remain very isolated with a few pockets of 0.25-0.5″ of rain possible in the central/eastern Dakotas and the MN panhandle.
As discussed before, more storms are possible tomorrow across the eastern Dakotas into western MN as well as central NE with additional rain opportunities late Tuesday into Wednesday across the region. Euro forecasted rainfall through the next 7 days: 0.5-1.25″ of rain is likely across portions of the central Dakotas with 1″+ possible in central/western NE.
Here’s a look at temperature guidance over the next four days: It will remain cooler across a majority of ND and MN through this period with an uptick in temperatures in in far western ND and western/central SD as the warm front builds in.
Here’s a look at dew points over the next four days: Dew points will remain in the 60s today and tomorrow before dropping behind an approaching cold front Monday across the Dakotas and western MN.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days:
Here’s a look at the Euro Model 10-day forecast for select cities across the region:
Minneapolis, MN
Fargo, ND
Lincoln, NE
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out via [email protected]! Have a great weekend!