Good Saturday afternoon!
A check on radar shows that we are looking at some showers and storms in the NW part of KS, with some “feels like” temps in the middle 100s across the entire state:
We are watching for the potential of storms overnight and into the early morning hours of Sunday to be focused on the W part of the state. Here is a simulated radar loop from 7 PM CT tonight until 1 AM CT Sun morning. These cells look to be scattered in nature initially, but we are keeping an eye on the potential for these cells to form into more of an organized line as we near midnight. Any cell or line of storms over the next 2 days certainly has the potential to be severe with damaging winds and large hail being the main threats, but as of now we do not think this will be any widespread severe weather event:
We do think there will be more chances for precip state wide as we move into the back half of the weekend. Sunday we will be watching some upper level energy (darker shades of reds) moving across the state. Below is a simulated loop of upper level energy from 7 AM CT Sun until 7 PM CT. Chances will be highest for some scattered showers and storms earliest in the day in W KS and those chances will push eastward the later in the day you go:
Below is a look at simulated radar from 7 AM CT Sun until 6 PM CT. There is the potential for some severe weather with some of these cells tomorrow, the primary focus for any strong or severe activity being tonight in the W quarter of the state and tomorrow evening in the E third of the state. This is not to say there cannot be severe cells outside of this time frame, however these are the times when the chances are the highest:
Temperatures tomorrow will again be on the warmer side of things with “feels like” values in the low 100s for much of the SE part of the state as shown below. Monday should bring some relief of the heat as we are anticipating highs to only be in the low 80s across much of the state, with the only exception being SE KS as highs will likely be in the mid to upper 80s:
A look at rainfall guidance out through Sunday evening from 4 hi-resolution, short term models. We are not expecting a statewide rain over the next 36 hours, but the chances are there for mainly the northern half of the state as this energy pushes W to E across KS tonight and into tomorrow.The areas with the best shot at seeing the highest rains are the KS/CO and KS/NE borders as the chance is there tonight and tomorrow for more coverage and potentially some stronger cells than the rest of the state. We favor a blend of the 2 images on the bottom for precip amounts. A general 0.1 to 0.5 inches in the areas just mentioned, although it is worth noting that totals will vary widely due to the scattered nature of these storms. Some very localized areas can see higher amounts where the strongest cells set themselves up:
As always, if you have any questions please do not hesitate to reach out to us at [email protected] ! Enjoy the rest of your Saturday!