Good Tuesday afternoon!
Here is a a look at rain amounts that have fallen over the past 24 hours. Almost all of the state has stayed dry for the past 24 hours:
Current radar is quiet as the nearest rains are in northern ND and southern Nebraska. Things look to change for the northern and western parts of the state into the overnight hours. We are watching a wave of upper level energy move over the western parts of SD this evening. Here is a modeled loop of that upper level energy passing over the mentioned areas going from 4 PM CT Tuesday until 7 AM CT Wednesday:
This energy will translate to a round of storms coming later this evening and into the early overnight hours. Our energy looks to decrease as it moves from W to E over the state, so the heaviest amounts of rain from this system should be seen in W SD. The SPC has placed the NW portions of South Dakota in a slight risk for severe weather as hail, strong wind gusts, and the possibility of isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.Here is a radar loop from 6 PM this evening until 7 AM Wednesday:
This is the area that we are most concerned with for severe weather for tonight :
After this main round of storms moves out we look to have chances of some leftover spotty showers and storms in E SD as the precip works its way into ND and MN. Tomorrow will bring warm temperatures to much of the state as we could be looking at some 90 degree readings in the central parts of SD. The NW parts of the state look to stay slightly cooler than the rest of the state, but temps in this area will still be in the low to mid 80’s. We think this model is slightly under-doing temps in the NW parts of SD:
Wednesday throughout the day looks to bring unsettled weather as we will be dealing temps near 90 and dew points near 70. This will lead to some scattered pop up storms across the state. These will be very hit and miss in nature and will not be a washout. Tomorrow evening looks like it could play out similar to tonight with a round of storms impacting the W parts of the state near sunset and it gradually works its way E overnight. Here is a simulated radar loop from 4 PM CT Wednesday until 2 AM Thursday:
The north/northwest parts of the state have been placed under a slight risk for excessive rainfall for Wednesday, as these rounds of rain tonight and tomorrow evening could accumulate to over 1.25 inches where the heaviest bands set up:
Rainfall guidance through 7 PM CT Wednesday evening. This model matches our thoughts with the heaviest rain coming for the N and W parts of the state, with most of E SD only dealing with light rain overnight tonight and very isolated pop ups on Wednesday. Accumulation will vary widely, however W SD could be looking at a base of 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rainfall through Wednesday evening with amounts locally higher where the strongest storm cells set up:
If you have any questions or would like more localized forecast details please do not hesitate to reach out to us at [email protected]. Have a great rest of your Tuesday!