7-17-19 Northern Plains: Additional storm threats tonight (esp. Minnesota)…a bit drier Thurs/Fri. N.

Today’s video:

Observed rainfall over the past 24 hours is below…some localized very heavy rainfall noted across the southern half of ND and a good many locations across SD:

Several locations in the circled area across the southern half of MN are anticipated to see 1.0-3.0″…a few locations maybe even top 3.0″+ due to flash flooding risks especially south and east. Otherwise, we targeted scattered 0.25-0.75″ across eastern ND to northern MN, and isolated 0.25-0.50″ across western ND:

We’ve circle an area black where we favor the best risks for flash flooding and strong / severe risks tonight…damaging winds being the primary threat, isolated large hail and isolated tornadoes possible:

Rainfall guidance from Thursday night to Monday Monday is below that we favor right now…with storm clusters riding the top of the ridge continuing across the boundaries of ND/SD into south-central MN on par for 0.75-1.50″ (localized 2-3″ possible across the western Dakotas and south-central MN).  Best threat for more coverage after today is Saturday…with more hit and miss activity Thursday-Friday.

Wind guidance over the next 4 days:

Extreme heat will clip southern parts of the area late week, where heat indices go over 100º.  Here are the forecast heat indices the next 4 days.  Notice the sharp gradient in the temperatures over the area!

North Dakota:

Crosby:

Jamestown:

Fargo / Grand Forks:

South Dakota:

Pierre:

Aberdeen:

Sioux Falls:

Minnesota:

Worthington:

Grand Rapids:

Minneapolis:

Rochester: