Good Monday afternoon! This will be a quick update regarding this afternoon into tonight’s storm threat. The small cluster of heavier showers and storms will continue to drift ESE exiting southeast KS by 5-6pm CDT this evening. Elsewhere, additional isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are expected to develop across KS and portions of southern NE with a bigger storm threat looming across western and central NE this evening. A shortwave trough will lift into the Western Plains this evening in a moderately unstable air mass coupled with decent vertical wind shear. This will cause initial development of discrete cells (6-8pm) across western NE, especially the panhandle, before congealing into a cluster and diving SSE across southwestern NE and even northwestern KS (though in a weaker state in KS) tonight. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threat initially before becoming more of a wind threat overnight as the storms become a congealed complex. I can’t rule out an isolated tornado or two tonight in western NE. A couple isolated storms are still possible in north-central KS before the line reaches the western KS/NE border between 2-3am CDT Tuesday morning. By this time the complex will begin weakening with the remnants of the overnight MCS impacting portions of northern/central KS and eastern NE during the morning hours Tuesday. ARW simulated radar through 12pm CDT Tuesday:
Total rainfall through 7am CDT Tuesday:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out via [email protected]! Have a great rest of your day!