Have a blessed day! -Kirk
Updated August forecast:
Temperatures:
- We have made a few small shifts with the placement of the greatest warmth for the upcoming August, Overall, we trended closer to our original August forecast that we made back in April, with the best warmth located in the Eastern third of the US.
- Overall, the most recent –AAM years support warmth especially on the East Coast as do +SOI Augusts. We do have some signs that there could be a strong cold front in early August, which is represented in the cooler risks in the Northern Plains.
- We also note that if we continue to see a –AAM/MJO phase 2 combination at times in August that it suggests a cooler risk in the Central US at times.
- With those drivers in mind, we are favoring slightly cooler risks in the N. Plains and the best warmth on the East Coast to Ohio Valley. If there’s a risk, we do note a few years with similar MJO forcing had a stronger +PNA which suppressed warmth in the East (including 2012). We aren’t favoring that right now given the stronger –AAM, but it is something we want to keep an eye on as we move forward.
Precipitation:
- August has been the month of summer that has also tended to run a little bit wetter on analogs, and given that July isn’t panning out as dry as originally thought, we have trended wetter with our forecast for the Ag Belt.
- Both the SOI and AAM correlations in August are very wet and given the suggestions of an Eastern US ridge, we will likely have an increased return flow from the Gulf of Mexico to aid in wetter risks from the MS Valley and into the Ag Belt.
- A bit of a gradient from the NW Plains to SE Ag Belt will also aid in increased wet risks. With all of this in mind, we have gone widespread above normal rainfall for the Northern and Central Plains and into the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
- One thing to note is that August notoriously tricky with rainfall. The exact orientation of the ridge will be key. If we trend a bit further west with the ridge – it would be a drier risk to the forecast.
- The other risk would be potential tropical cyclone activity. The start of August looks to be on the quiet side, but ENSO and MJO analogs are both suggestive of a more active Hurricane season and that is something we will have to watch and fine tune as we get closer to late August.