Good Saturday afternoon!
A quick check on radar as of 3 PM CT shows that we have an area of storms focusing themselves in E SD. We do think this area is the part of the state that can see the most coverage and most severe storms tonight:
While we do think the overwhelming majority of the state stays dry the rest of the afternoon and evening, we are watching for the potential of some severe thunderstorm development in E SD. An area of upper level energy will be working toward the E and is the cause for some of the increasing thunderstorm coverage as mentioned on radar. These storms can be severe with all forms of severe weather on the table, most notably hail and high winds. An isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out either. Here is a look at that upper level energy at 8 PM CT tonight as it slides its way E into MN:
These storms should fade as the night goes on and we lose our daytime heating. Our focus turns toward tomorrow where we are looking at another chance of rain, however we do not think this will be anything very widespread. Here is a look at the upper level energy that will be moving through the region from 4 AM CT Sunday until 4 PM CT Sunday. The heaviest and most widespread amounts look to stay in ND, and the biggest focus for rainfall potential should stay in the Northern half of SD:
Here is a simulated radar loop of tomorrow from 7 AM CT Sunday until 7 PM CT:
While any of these storms tomorrow has the potential to be severe, current thinking is that the biggest threat comes in the NE part of the state. This is where we see the highest amounts of instability, the strongest winds, and the biggest change in wind direction in the upper levels:
A look at high temps tomorrow. We are looking at low 90’s state wide with mid 90’s in the South Central part of the state. Areas to the north that receive rain could be looking at slightly cooler temperatures due to the rain cooled air:
Rainfall guidance out until 7 PM CT Sunday. Again, we do think the heaviest rains will fall in the northern portions of the state but this is not saying that all of S SD will stay completely dry. We are looking at amounts in the 0.25 to 0.75 inches range, with amounts locally higher where the heaviest cells set themselves up:
As always, if you have any questions please do not hesitate to reach out to us at [email protected] ! Enjoy the rest of your Saturday!