Good Saturday afternoon!
A quick update on Barry, below is the timing and track that we think Barry will take over the course of the next several days:
As mentioned in the graphic, we are starting to see more models come to agreement in the timing and placement of where the low will track. Below are 3 different “spaghetti” plots that show where each different model has the center of the low:
The European model members and its “mean” (black line):
The American model members and its “mean” (black/blue lines):
A variety of models:
All of our models have good agreement that the center of what’s left of Barry will likely work its way into the SE parts of the state and then start to take more of a NE movement into the Ohio Valley. While some spotty showers and storms or an isolated wave of rain can work into the Southern portions of Missouri during the rest of the day today and into tomorrow, the bulk of the widespread rains do not look to cross the Arkansas/Missouri border until Monday morning. Below is a look at the timing and placement of Barry from 1 AM CT Mon until 1 PM CT Wed. We see Barry work its way into the SE portions of the state Mon AM and linger around a little longer than normal since it is making its “turn” from a N movement to a NE movement right in SE Missouri. Rain chances will stick around for much of your Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday AM. By late Wed AM and into the afternoon we see much of the remnants off to the N and E:
A look at rainfall chances and amounts. Below are 4 different models and their rainfall guidance out through Wednesday evening. There is fairly good model agreement regarding the rainfall amounts that certain areas across the state will see. The further SE you go in MO, the higher your chances are of seeing the heaviest rains. Much of Northern and NW MO may completely miss out on any rains from this system:
Here is the *current* thinking regarding rainfall potential. There can still be some changes now that the storm has actually made landfall and the end of rainfall is still about 100 hours out:
As always, if you have any questions please do not hesitate to reach out to us at [email protected] ! Enjoy the rest of your Saturday!