Good Friday morning everyone! Yesterday evening into this morning has been very wet across the southern portions of the region with widespread 0.75-2.5″ of rain falling. As much as 5″ of rain fell in localized areas of southeastern SD with some locations still picking up rain as of 8:40am CDT.
Current radar (8:40am CDT) depicts a leftover cluster of showers and embedded thunderstorms in southeastern SD into southern MN. Over the next several hours this cluster will trek ENE, fading in intensity.
Re-development of showers and storms is expected between 1-4pm CDT across the far southern portions of the region, especially far southeastern MN/SD. These showers/storms will continue to follow the flow to the ENE with isolated shower and storm risks continuing in the same areas Saturday morning. The remainder of the region will stay dry today with the exception being isolated pop-up showers and storms developing after noon today before diminishing by 8pm CDT this evening. Simulated radar through 7pm CDT Saturday:
Another cold front will lift into the Dakotas Saturday afternoon initiating storms between 3-5pm CDT from north-central ND to far northwestern SD. Given instability and wind shear values that will be present in this area, I can’t rule out some strong wind gusts and hail. The cold front will drift south Saturday night into Sunday with more storms likely to fire Sunday afternoon and evening across South Dakota. Further northeast along the cold front, isolated storms could fire across northeastern MN Sunday afternoon and evening as well.
Simulated European model 6-hour precipitation from 1am CDT Sunday through 7am CDT next Friday: The cold front will exit the region late Sunday into early Monday leaving room for high pressure to settle into the region through Tuesday with only isolated storm risks across western/southern SD during this time. Another disturbance will enter the region very early Wednesday morning bringing shower/storm risks to the western Dakotas before pushing ESE into southeastern ND, eastern SD, and southern MN late Thursday/early Friday. This disturbance will exit the region early next Friday morning with calmer weather elsewhere for the day next Friday.
Total rainfall through 7pm CDT Wednesday:
Here’s a look at the progression of temperatures over the next four days: High temperatures compared to yesterday will flip across the region with warmer weather today and tomorrow across a majority of the Dakotas and cooler weather in far southeastern SD and southern MN today where precipitation will hang on. The cold front will push into the region late Saturday with a more seasonable airmass tracking in behind it.
Here’s a look at dew points over the next four days: Dew points will drop drastically beginning Sunday across ND and pushing into the majority of the region Monday.
Here’s a look at wind gusts over the next four days:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out via [email protected]! Have a great day!