Good Thursday afternoon everyone! Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue across northern SD into west-central MN pushing ENE as of 2:30pm CDT. As we push further into the late afternoon hours, I expect this convection to persist over the next few hours before diminishing as more activity picks up across southern portions of the area later this evening.
Heat Advisories remain in effect today in southeast MN where temperatures have already broke 90ºF with heat indices exceeding 100ºF. Flash Flood Watches have also been issued in southeast SD/southwest MN where heavy storms are set to fire across the area late this afternoon into the overnight hours.
Southeastern SD into southern MN needs to be on the lookout for strong to severe storms late this afternoon into tonight as storms develop across the region. CAPE values (energy for storms to tap into) and high moisture content will provide plenty of instability for storms to fire where some of the storms may contain large hail, damaging winds, and/or an isolated tornado. Storms are unlikely to remain discrete as vertical wind shear remains relatively weak, hence the very marginal tornado threat.
Simulated radar through 10am CDT Saturday: Storms ignite across southern/southeastern SD into southern MN between 4-8pm CDT depending on location and persisting across far southeastern SD into far southern MN through the morning hours Friday while gradually weakening. Widely scattered thunderstorms may remain across far southern MN through Friday afternoon. More storm development is expected mostly south of the area Friday afternoon into Saturday morning but I can’t rule out far southern MN/southeastern SD getting clipped by these storms overnight Friday/Saturday.
Total rainfall through 7pm CDT Friday: Depending on how far north storm development reaches late Friday into Saturday morning, far southeastern SD/southern MN may add an additional 0.1-0.3″ of rain to these totals.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out via [email protected]! Have a great day!