Have a blessed day!
June forecast verification:
Updated August forecast vs previous:
Temperature:
- We trended warmer in the eastern US due to our favored latest analogs combined for this August being 1988, 1995, 1998, 2007, 2010 and 2017 (centered the warmest anomalies over the Ohio Valley).
- Another reason why we trended warm in the east is the fact that July has trended warmer overall in the Midwest to Ohio Valley due to current dryness and the placement of the ridge given the strengthening –AAM (La Nina-like atmosphere).
- Risk: if we do end up finally seeing more tropical activity, the southern US could be at risk to be cooler.
Precipitation:
- We still favor good northwest flow moisture risks across the north-central Plains given where we anticipate the ridging to set up shop across the central Plains quite frequently.
- We trended drier in the central US also due to current August analogs and the change in drying / warming up the forecast here for July (thinking this may have lingering impacts).
- Risk: a risk to this obviously is if we can work any tropical activity into the eastern Grain Belt or squash the ridge of high pressure more, allowing for increased moisture.