Overall a quiet start to the day across KS and MO with some morning convection to the north of the area. I expect these areas to stay mostly dry through the morning with a spotty shower or storm possible in central/northeastern KS. The SPC has highlighted central/northeastern KS into northwestern MO for strong storms firing along a cold front pushing east this afternoon into the nighttime hours. These storms may contain large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.
Simulated radar from 11am CDT this morning through 7pm Sunday evening: Most areas stay dry this morning, especially MO, before storm activity picks up this afternoon through Sunday morning. By this evening I would have to argue there could be more storms across eastern KS/northwestern MO than what is depicted by the ARW model below. During the overnight hours more storms will push in from the west from eastern CO/southern NE and bring storm risks across KS tonight and even western MO by early morning. Storm chances continue tomorrow across MO with a marginal risk for gusty winds and hail.
The greatest risk for heavy rains currently exist across northeast KS and far northwestern MO through 8am Sunday morning. Depending on the coverage of storms this evening and again during the overnight hours, rainfall amounts of 1-2″ of rain with locally higher amounts is possible in these areas. Elsewhere across KS, 0.25-0.5″ of rain with locally higher amounts is possible.
The upper level ridge bringing widespread heat to the region is slowly migrating east but not without holding on for one last day before retreating east. Widespread 90s for highs are expected across a majority of KS and MO today with heat indices surpassing 100ºF before a cold front approaches from the northwest, moderating temperatures across KS into northwest MO.
Heat Advisories/Excessive Heat Warnings continue across the eastern half of KS into MO as we enter our last significant day of this heatwave. Please take precautions with this heat and stay hydrated and cool!
High temperatures over the next four days:
Low temperatures over the next four days: Overnight lows will be elevated through the period with a slight drawback across KS Monday morning.
Dew points over the next four days: Dew points well over 70ºF are likely across the eastern half of KS into MO today before a drop in humidity occurs Sunday across most of KS. Humidity will be back on the rise heading into the new work week.
Wind forecast over the next four days:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out via [email protected]! Have a great rest of your weekend!