Good Evening! Here are your latest short term updates:
This evening a line of thunderstorms is moving through eastern Kansas and Nebraska bringing heavy rain and in far southern Kansas a severe hail and wind risk. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out as we move further into the evening hours associated with a low level jet stream that will be developing in central Oklahoma. The heaviest rain will continue to follow the energy gradient this evening into southeastern Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, and southwest Missouri. In the figure below the gradient and its predicted motion is outlined:
Current radar and energy:
Current severe weather outlook for tonight:
Rainfall totals due to this slow moving line could be anywhere from 1-2″ across the majority of eastern Kansas and southwest Missouri. Locally heavier pockets of 3-4+” are definitely a possibility. The majority of the region is under a marginal flash flood risk for this evening. Eastern Kansas has a slight risk of flash flooding and some areas are showing 1 hour rainfall totals greater than an inch in some areas. None of the models are representing this event very well right now, so the estimated rainfall totals through tonight below is not nearly an exact representation, but merely a scale to base total rainfall off of in a system like this.
Model estimated rainfall totals through tomorrow morning:
Flash Flood risks:
The past 24 hour rainfall totals:
As always if you have any questions or concerns don’t hesitate to reach out. Have a wonderful evening!