Hoping you all had a blessed weekend, and have a great week ahead! -Kirk
New updated July forecast:
Temperatures:
- No major changes to our forecast for July. Though, we did increase CDDs a bit based on summer of our latest top analogs.
- Right now, we are keeping an eye on the –AAM state and the tropical forcing in the Pacific. Lack of convection in the Pacific tends to favors warmer July months.
- Years that carried over well from June with tropical forcing over to July were 2010, 2003, 1995, and 1988. These years favored warmth especially across the Northern tier of the US and some cooler air down the south.
- Given tropical risks, we do think Texas can be cooler than normal which will prevent CDDs from going much above the 10 year normal.
- We sent the much above normal temperatures into the Rockies where the driest conditions are developing, but kept it out of the Pacific NW further south towards the –AAM correlation.
Precipitation:
- No big change in the orientation here either, but we did take out the much above normal precipitation in the Upper-Midwest.
- Some analogs are suggestive that the jet stream really goes into Canada in July and for that reason and the risk that there could be dry stretches, we decided to leave those areas at just above normal given some NW flow potential at times.
- There remains the potential that when heat builds very strongly in July, there could be the risk of very strong to severe damaging wind events with storm clusters from the Upper-Midwest to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.
- We did dry out the Western Plains a bit in the Dakotas given the tropical forcing analogs and risk for the ridge to setup in that area.
- If there’s a risk we need to watch it’s the Southern Plains if we continue to get tropical disturbances. This could present a wet risk.