500 Festival Forecast – Monday (5/22/17)
Synopsis: Good Monday morning. In today’s update below we discuss the forecast for Friday and Saturday’s events. It’ll be another active week in the rainfall department and that looks to continue late week into the weekend as well with multiple waves of energy moving east that’ll spawn some showers and storms. Confidence on the exact details on timing, track and amounts is on the lower end at this time, it will require some fine-tuning throughout the week. We can say, if the timing slows down, a significant rain event is possible for the Parade.
Friday: First and foremost, the forecast for late this week into the weekend is tricky, if models speed up or slow down this low pressure system moving in from the east it could spell out some heavy rains. There looks to be a wave of energy sweeping in from the Northwest on Friday which has us concerned for showers and storms. The threat at this time seems to be more in the afternoon, so right now we place a 30% chance for PM storms. A weather-related delay cannot be ruled out on Friday.
High temperatures look to be in the mid-70s right now, climbing from the 50s in the morning to the 70s in the afternoon.
Winds at this time will be out of the south-southwest at 5-10 mph, gusting at times up to 20mph.
Saturday: Here we have the low pressure tracking further east into the Midwest with a warm front lifting north throughout the day. I think the GFS has a good handle on how the warm front lifts into the Midwest, which would suggest showers and storms, some heavy at times not out of the question. Coverage right now is at 50% for storms. A weather-related hazard is becoming more likely here.
Highs look to be in the upper 70s right now for the metro area, however dew points look to be in the mid-60s so it could be a little muggy.
Winds look to be initially out of the southwest turning to the northwest throughout the day at 5-10 mph, gusting at times to 20 mph.
Here’s a glance at 48-hour rainfall totals from the GFS because it shows the risk for heavy rains well, it certainly is possible over a 2 day span we see 1-2″ of rainfall here. Check back often.
If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to reach out.
-Kirk