Have a blessed weekend! -Kirk
Temperatures:
- While we didn’t change much about the orientation of June we did trend warmer across a good portion of the Central US to Great Lakes due to strong signals of an upcoming –AAM state.
- As you may recall, the AAM was a big caveat in our June thoughts, however, it appears there is a much better consensus that we will go into a strong –AAM state by the second week of June.
- The –AAM (or weak global winds) correlates to widespread warmth in the month of June especially across the northern tier of the US.
- A stall in the MJO will also tend to favor a persistent ridge and allow the jet stream to surge into Canada at times flooding the warmest air into the Central and Northern US.
- Risks to the forecast include the tendency at times for the ridge to shift further east. If anything, this would just work to increase CDDs further due to higher population areas.
- We have strong support among the EPS and CFS monthly data for warmth in June and similar tropical forcing and –AAM analogs such as 1988 and to an extent 2016, 2002, and 2005 are all also quite warm in June.
Precipitation:
- With a stronger ridge possible related to a sharper and quicker drop in the global winds (-AAM), a more potent dome of high pressure and heat could setup mid-month.
- This could effectively shunt precipitation for a time north into Canada and leave much of the Ag Belt quite dry.
- We still have the initial ridge expansion to start the month which will lend to some northwest flow and storm cluster risks – most frequently from the N. Plains to Midwest. Subsequently, we’ve kept those areas wet to normal even with a potential dry stretch mid-month.
- Risks to the forecast include wetter pending how exactly the early June storm clusters track and how much rain they drop.
- We also need to closely watch tropical activity. This kind of setup can easily produce GOM tropical systems which can further draw moisture away from the Ag Belt and enhance dry risks. Conversely, it only takes one storm coming north to drastically change how the month verifies.
- There is plenty of support today for the drier forecast with a substantially dry signal from both the CFS/EPS and similar AAM/ENSO/MJO analogs suggestive of dry risks as well.