5-21-19 Indiana: Updated thoughts on today’s shower risks & storm risks late tonight and again through the weekend. N.

Video:

First item of note is today’s rain chance, which is looking more expansive and a bit more aggressive than yesterday.  Showers will increase after 8am, with the best chance lasting until 2pm.  There will be a diminishing trend in the rain mid to late afternoon.  By the evening, most areas can expect to be dry as warmer air starts to lift northward.  

Total rain today:

Round 2 comes with an occluding cold front that will bring a strong line of storms into western Indiana.  Looks to reach the Indiana border by 2-3am.  At this point, it can still maintain strong winds with isolated damaging wind possible.  Looks to reach Indy after 4am and linger through roughly 8am.  The line will really start to weaken just as it moves east of Indy.  

Rainfall through Wednesday AM: Note the sharp gradient in totals from very light east to heavy for west-central locations.  

The video notes model differences in precipitation this weekend, but given how things have panned out recently and the fact that storms this weekend can easily drop heavy rain, hard to go against the more aggressive solutions for rain which is shown below.

Wind forecast over the next 4 days:

Indianapolis

Fort Wayne:

Lafayette:

Bloomington:

Madison:

Evansville: