Good morning! Just wanted to send you our latest June forecast thoughts. Have a blessed weekend! -Kirk
Temperature discussion:
- We have made some minor adjustments to our June temperature outlook and dropped CDDs to 250. The reason we dropped CDDs is because we took the much above normal temperatures out of the Midwest.
- We decided to place the warmer temperatures compared to normal in the areas that are under developing drought conditions. There remains the potential for the global winds to weaken in June which would also support a southern US ridge.
- Feedback from the drought will also aid in the tendency for the warmest air to setup in the SW Plains to Desert SW.
- The big risk in June is the exact placement of warmth. We do believe that June can start of cooler, but will warm up especially into Mid-Late June. Top analogs support a more widespread warmer risk, though there remain discrepancies in whether the greatest warmth sets up in the Desert SW or Great Lakes. The risk of Great Lakes warmth would be a slightly higher risk to CDDs, but wouldn’t likely cause major differences.