Good Friday morning! Below is our latest June forecast update + discussion. If you have any additional questions, please let us know! Have a blessed weekend -Kirk
Temperatures:
- We made no major changes to our June outlook today, but we did make a few subtle changes to note.
- First, based on ENSO evolution analogs and our top analog, 2005, we decided to shift the core of the warmth a bit north/east of our previous update. Thus, we trended a bit warmer in the Great Lakes.
- This took the much above normal out of Northern Texas with the core of the heat dome setting up just a bit further north.
- We are also seeing a notable trend of cooling ocean waters and suppression in the Pacific. Years that cooled ENSO and had similar tropical forcing also favored warmth especially in the Central US to Great Lakes.
- We also anticipate a drop in the AAM which supports warmth over the Great Lakes. Given these signals we warmed the Great Lakes and our CDD forecast to 260.
Precipitation:
- Minor changes to our precipitation forecast. Because we moved the core of the warmth/ridge a bit northeast we also took our below normal precipitation forecast a tick east.
- Given a further north ridge we also took the NW flow risks out of parts of Minnesota and Iowa.
- Analogs are in a strong consensus for dry risks especially in the Eastern Ag Belt into the S. Plains and Deep South.
- We remain a touch west of analogs with the driest risks given where soils are currently getting very warm and dry.
- The one risk to mention is if the ridge were to situate further east than forecast it would bring wetter risks vs. the forecast in the W/NW Plains.