4-29-19 Ohio: Active, stormy & warm week ahead…breaking down the risks day-by-day this morning. K.

Today’s Video:

Observed moisture over the past 7 days…very wet previous week with some locations noting 4″+ northwest:

The rainfall in the short-term looks to primarily be focused with the heavier totals in the northern and northwestern parts of the state where we think ~0.5-1.5″ is a good bet for additional moisture. We mentioned also in the video that this guidance could be underdone across north-central Ohio if we develop any strong storms today into Wednesday:

This week will be one of those weeks that we will need to take it one day at a time as models are swinging back and forth on their forecasts Thursday through the weekend. Regarding strong storm potential, right now our best threats in the short-term look to come today and Wednesday; today we could see some isolated discrete cells where a few strong storms could develop in the area noted below, where all modes of severe can’t be ruled out. Getting into our Wednesday also shown below we think a good portion of the state will be susceptible also to some isolated strong to severe storms where all modes will be possible given elevated energy and moisture values:

Total moisture forecast over the next 7 days is below…we also mentioned in the video that given the risks for strong storms in the forecast and elevated atmospheric moisture content all week that this model may be underdone I-70 south, where in reality we think a good many of us pose the risk for over 1.0″ widespread:

Wind forecast over the next 4 days:

Temperature/precipitation charts over the next 10 days:

Toledo:

Columbus:

Cincinnati: