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Good Tuesday morning! Current radar at 6: 30 AM CDT shows showers across much of the state, heaviest near I-70.
Latest rainfall totals over the past 24 hours…portions of western Illinois have already seen over 2″ of rain.
Flood watches in place for central/southern parts of the state through this evening for heavy rains continuing…Totals of 1.5″ to 3″ through tonight especially near and south of I-70. Given the trends to push the heavier rains further south, we think the flood watches should be expanded to include all of southern Illinois.
Simulated radar guidance shows the heavier rain pushing east this morning, we may see a lull in the rain intensity this morning but expecting widespread showers to encompass areas near and south of I-70 through the afternoon, with lower coverage north.
Wednesday will feature dry hours for most areas along with mild temperatures. Showers increase tomorrow evening/night with Thursday looking like a wet day for much of the state.
Through Friday morning, rain totals of 2-4″ along and south of I-70. This is where the greatest flooding concerns will be this week. More manageable rain amounts near 1″ or slightly less for northern areas.
Temperatures will feel more spring-like over the next few days. Wednesday will be the warmest day as highs near or exceed 60º in multiple locations. As a frontal boundary moves through on Thursday, temperatures trend cooler.
Friday is trending drier. Another front arrives this weekend which will unfortunately mean chances for precipitation. We may luck out on the mild side of the front Saturday with showers moving in, then much colder air looks to work south into the state with falling temperatures on Easter. Unfortunately, this could mean rain transitioning to wet snow on Easter as well. Lots of model inconsistencies here so not the highest of confidence. For example, the American (GFS) model brings the front through here much faster on Saturday, then leaves us with a dry but cool Easter. The GFS also tends to be too progressive with systems several days out. Shown below is the European:
