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Good Monday morning! Complicated forecast ahead for the next 48 hours with lower than normal confidence. A potent storm system will roll east from the central Plains into the region tonight. Most of northern/northwest Indiana likely to see no impacts from this event as it stands now. Most of the precipitation tonight will be confined near the I-70 corridor and points south. As the system deepens and draws in colder air, there is the risk of freezing rain/mixed precip. late tonight. More wrap-around precipitation will continue to target eastern and southeast Indiana throughout the day Tuesday through Wednesday morning. ***Our afternoon short-term updates today will be key as we will have new data to fine-tune the details!***
Before the changes roll in, we have another mild day of weather as much of the state warms into the 50s this afternoon. The precipitation will work into the southern half of the state from late afternoon through the evening. As we head beyond 2am, the system is wrapping in enough cold air for the risk of freezing rain to develop, confined across the I-70 corridor and south across south-central Indiana in the 3am-10am EDT window. The tricky part of this will be the northern edge of the precipitation shield. A small shift could mean nothing for Indianapolis, and a couple clicks north brings decent precipitation across the metro. This is why you will want to check back!
Check out the temperature transition from the 50s this afternoon to the low 30s to perhaps upper 20s late tonight through Tuesday morning across south-central portions of the state. Certainly at risk for overpasses and elevated surfaces to become slick for Tuesday morning commute.
The southeast half of the state will have the chance for continued snow and rain showers throughout Tuesday, then the snow chances ramp up late into the day through the overnight across southeast and the eastern half of the state. Where the band sets up is key, as the band will tend to sit over eastern Indiana for much of the night into Wednesday morning. There will be a fine-line between steady snow all night vs. nothing at all, that line likely sets-up across the central portion of the state.
Temperatures certainly become cold enough overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning for that snow to stick.
While it’s difficult to nail down specific totals given uncertainty in the placement, just know a plowable snow event is definitely on the table tomorrow night. Again, right now it looks to target the eastern half of central Indiana and across southeast areas of the state. This could still shift! Check out some of the model data regarding snowfall amounts:
We will have another update out by early afternoon! Have a great day!