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Good Thursday morning! Overall today should be the nicest day of the week, with mostly sunny skies and milder air. There will be a large spread in temperatures, ranging from near 40º northeast to near 70º in southwest Illinois. Most of you end up in the upper 40s to middle 50s.
Clouds will increase through the day Friday, with showers building into Illinois and southwest Indiana during the afternoon. We are watching Friday night into the morning hours of Saturday as the precipitation builds northeast, into temperatures that will be near or below freezing, meaning the chance of freezing rain (perhaps some sleet) across the northeast portions of central Indiana and across northern Indiana. Main time-frame looks to be 2am-8am EDT Saturday. It shouldn’t take long for the ice to melt away beyond sunrise Saturday.
Given the temperatures, we have drawn a line where we think there are concerns for light freezing rain and a wintry mix pre-dawn Saturday. Areas like Muncie, Tipton, Kokomo, Delphi and points northeast will be the main focus for a light glaze of ice, especially on elevated surfaces and bridges. Temperatures will be coldest as the precipitation moves in, then slowly rising through Saturday morning. At this point we don’t have any concerns for Indianapolis as the temperature looks to remain above freezing.
Showers will gradually dissipate late Saturday, then Sunday is looking good with some sunshine and a much milder day. Here is an animation of temperatures Saturday and Sunday. While most of the state stays cool Saturday (low/mid 40s) sharply warmer air may creep into southwest Indiana. By Sunday, everyone warms into the 50s.
The next threat for rain will arrive late Monday, then temperatures start to fall Tuesday into Wednesday as an upper-level low spins overhead. This could create enough cold air for a band of wet snow late Tuesday into Wednesday, best chance over the northern half of the state.
Current guidance shows a general 0.5″ to 1″ of precipitation for most areas through mid next week. That said, most of this is forecast to fall early next week which is a lower confidence forecast. Guidance may be overdone.
