Good afternoon everyone! A weak wave from the Northern Plains is skirting across the far northern-most two rows of counties in IA as of 5pm CST and will continue to lift eastward through the evening hours. There will also be a few scattered snow showers in far eastern IA late this evening, but most of this activity should be exiting to the east by the end of this loop (12am CST tonight). Elsewhere, our next wave to contend with will be starting in the far western portions of the NE Panhandle. A few patches of freezing fog may also develop in NE and IA tonight into Saturday morning that could lead to a few slicks spots pending its development.
Most of the region will stay dry this evening with the exception being the far northern-most two rows of counties of IA and the far eastern portions of the state. Minor additional accumulations are expected in far northern IA (near the IA/MN border) generally 1″ or less with some light dustings possible just to the south and in far eastern IA.
There have been a few changes to the winter weather bulletins across the region since this morning’s update as Winter Storm Warnings have been issued in central KS while Winter Weather Advisories expanded further east to encompass more of far northern KS and central NE. Winter Storm Watches remain for eastern KS into central MO. All of these are associated with our winter storm set to impact the area Saturday but particularly Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Simulated radar from 12am CST tonight through 6pm CST Saturday: Our storm of interest this weekend will begin to spread snow into western NE generally after midnight tonight, and become more widespread across NE throughout the day Saturday. Most of KS won’t initially observe this precipitation as it remains in NE, but a few flurries and perhaps some freezing drizzle will be possible in western KS with snow showers skirting the far northern portions of the state. By the end of this loop (6pm CST Saturday), NE will be engulfed with lighter snows, IA will observe scattered hits of snow showers while the biggest shot of snow will be lifting through eastern CO about to progress into western KS.
This bigger shot of snow will come further south of Saturday’s initial area, expecting to lift into western KS after 6pm CST Saturday evening. This is associated with a stream of energy out of the central Rockies that will storm eastward Saturday night across the southern portions of the region. This is not to say that southern NE doesn’t get clipped by these snows as we fully anticipate those areas as well to be on the northern periphery of the snow shield. Far southern IA will likely get grazed by these snows Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Simulated radar from 6pm CST Saturday through 3pm CST Sunday: Snows from eastern CO will overspread western KS after 6pm CST Saturday and quickly push eastward across the rest of the state during the remainder of the evening into the nighttime hours. These heavier snows will also be affecting southern NE during this time with the snows becoming lighter across the northern tier of the state. It won’t take long for the snow to encompass much of MO late Saturday night and continuing through Sunday morning. Given the fast-paced nature of this system, watch for the bulk of the snow to lift out of NE around 9am CST Sunday, KS around 11am CST and then MO around 2pm CST. However, some lingering light flurries will be possible in southwestern NE and northwestern KS.
Updated snowfall forecast Saturday through Sunday: Not much in the way of any changes to the graphic we put out this morning. Still anticipate a band of 5-8″ stretching from western NE through much of KS into central MO. Some of the numerical weather guidance has lessened the higher totals they originally showed in central MO and is coming more in line with high-resolution guidance, hence the elimination of the 8″+ region. However, locally higher amounts of 8″+ is still likely in central MO extending into far eastern KS. We did increase totals slightly in eastern NE given the light snow chances during the day Saturday.
Wind gusts from Saturday through Sunday night: Winds will increase behind the system Saturday night into Sunday for much of the region with gusts approaching 30mph at times through this duration. This will allow for older snowpack as well as fresh snow that would have fallen to blow around and lead to reduced visibilities. Something to keep in mind even after the snow has come to an end.
Temperatures will take a sharp turn behind this weekend’s wave as drastic cold for March standards will infiltrate the region. The peak of this cold will occur Sunday through Monday when wind chills drop towards -30ºF in NE and IA. This cold is not worth messing around with and can lead to frostbite in less than 15 minutes. Here’s a look at projected wind chills from Saturday through Tuesday morning:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!