Today’s Video:
Good morning everyone! The vast majority of the region is dry this morning and we expect this to continue to be the case through the remainder of the day with plentiful amounts of sunshine cast upon the Northern Plains. However, upper-level clouds will work into the western Dakotas late into the afternoon and evening as our next disturbance pushes closer. Very cold temperatures (more on this in the 4-panels and the video!) will remain across the area with widespread Wind Chill Warnings in ND, northern SD and western MN with Wind Chill Advisories in effect further south and east. Cloud cover will definitely have increased across the region come Saturday and we’re watching for light snow chances, especially north, through the day. We’ve highlighted an area below (north-central/northeastern ND) where enhanced frontogenesis or lift will likely lead to the best shot for moderate snows during the day Saturday.
Watch for the disturbance bringing light-moderate snows to lift into ND late tonight into Saturday morning and eventually northern MN late in the morning and especially during the afternoon hours. We’re targeting a corridor of 1-2″ to stretch through central ND into the northern third of MN with an area of 2-4″ of snow between Minot, Devil’s Lake and Bismarck. Further south, snow coverage will be more scattered in SD and central MN but should still lead to snow accumulations of less than 1″.
Another system from the south will bring another round of snows, but this time generally for SD and southern MN (can’t rule out snow showers in southwestern ND). Snows along the system’s northern periphery will glide into SD Saturday night and especially Sunday morning with snow coverage/intensity picking up in southern MN Sunday morning through the afternoon. Look for the snows to pull out of SD Sunday afternoon and southern MN Sunday evening/early night. While not as large of a concern as system’s past, beware of reduced visibilities and blowing/drifting snow given winds gusting to 30mph in SD and southern MN.
Snowfall through the day Sunday: Expect a general 1-3″ of snow for most of SD into southern MN as the system works through these areas and south. Locally higher amounts will be possible in central SD as some guidance is suggestive of this idea and there will be plenty of upper-level energy pushing through the area. Frontogenesis or lift looks to increase in southeastern MN that likely leads to heavier snowfall Sunday morning through mid-afternoon and bring 2-6″ of snow. The greatest axis for this resides for Minneapolis and points south towards Rochester. Also, we’re eyeing a snow hole near the Sioux Falls area that should observe less than 1″.
A more potent system to watch going into early next week comes as a strengthening low pressure system rides a tighter thermal gradient setup to the south of the region. Another round of accumulating snows is expected as the disturbance lifts into the region, especially over SD into MN as these areas will be located closer to the storm’s center. Given the strengthening nature of the storm and tighter pressure gradient, strong winds will likely accompany this storm so blowing/drifting snow and reduced visbiliites are to be anticipated. While still early, near-blizzard conditions will be possible and more likely the further southeast you’re located in southern MN. Significant snow accumulations of 6″+ will be possible, but the track and strength of the system will need to be fine-tuned through the weekend so definitely make sure to check back for updates.
Temperatures over the next four days: The Northern Plains will remain within a colder airmass that will supply not only ample opportunities for high-ratio snow events but also temperatures dropping well into the -10s and -20s for lows tonight and Saturday night, especially in ND and northern MN. Daytime high recovery won’t be substantial as most in ND, northern SD and western MN won’t warm much out of the -10s and then the negative single digits in ND Saturday. Wind chills falling into the -30s will be common in ND and northern SD Saturday and Sunday morning.
Here’s a look at wind gusts over the next four days:
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 10 days for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!