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Good morning everyone! Taking a look at the current radar as of 5:30am EST, another round of heavy rain is on its way that will impact the morning commute especially for the western and southern parts of the state. This continuous stream of moisture from the southwest coupled with a stout low-level jet will help to pump in additional rounds of heavy showers and storms into the afternoon and early evening, with some of these storms potentially becoming severe given the dynamics.
Areas of dense fog can be noted this morning across the central and southern portions of the state where Dense Fog Advisories have been issued until 8am EST this morning. The fog should slowly erode and lift northward through the morning hours. Otherwise, Flood Watches remain in effect for the southern half of the state given the heavy rains that have already fallen and the additional heavy showers and storms expected through the remainder of the day.
Here’s a little infographic regarding the strong storm risks from mid-morning into the afternoon hours (best threat from 12pm-5pm EST)…seeing some decent ingredients coming together to at least support a damaging wind threat (low-level jet cranking) as storms march through the area. There is some modest storm relative helicity (or potential for rotating storms) in the southern half of the state that could produce a couple isolated tornadoes as well, though we believe the damaging wind potential is the greatest threat.
Simulated radar through 7am EST Friday: Rounds of showers and heavy storms will progress across the state this morning before the winds crank and the cold front with widespread heavy rain and embedded storms track through the state (especially the southern two-thirds) in the afternoon and early evening. Watch for some potentially strong storms today given the ingredients at play today. The cold front will pass through the state this evening and quickly put an end to the showers and storms by 10pm EST in southeastern IN. There could be a very brief window for light snow showers/flurries as temperatures quickly drop tonight but definitely be weary of potential slick spots on untreated surfaces with the temperatures falling below freezing very rapidly after sunset.
It will become windy during the afternoon and early evening, with gusts in some locations possibly exceeding 50mph. This combined with the wet ground could cause some trees to uproot. The strong wind field aloft will easily mix to the surface and allow for gusts of this magnitude, but should also help to dry up some of the pavement before the temperatures quickly plummet below freezing.
An additional 1-2″ of rain is likely for the southern two-thirds of the state with some locations still observing more than 2″ on top of what was observed yesterday into last night. Precipitation will be more scattered in the northern third of the state, but some locations in these areas could still see another inch of rain.
Friday and Saturday are very sunny but much cooler due to the passage of the cold front from this evening. We will need to monitor the risk Sunday afternoon into the evening and possibly into the overnight as some light accumulating snowfall cannot be ruled out. Current indications point towards minor accumulations of 0.5-1″ of snow with localized 2″ possible. These details will be ironed out over the coming days.
Total precipitation through the next 7 days (excluding today’s system): Precipitation from the Sunday system and then the following stronger storm system early-mid next week that will likely bring additional liquid amounts of 0.5-1″ of rain for most locations.
Be sure to check out today’s video for more information regarding the forecast heading into the weekend. The temperature and wind graphics are posted below: After the passage of the cold front this evening into tonight, expect a 40-45ºF temperature drop from this afternoon to Friday morning!
High temperatures over the next four days:
Low temperatures over the next four mornings:
Wind forecast over the next four days:
High/low temperatures over the next 15 days:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!