Today’s Video:
Good morning everyone! It is quite the cold one out there this morning with virtually the entire region has woken up to temperatures below zero with the coldest air hovering in northern ND and northern MN where -10s and -20s are most pronounced. Wind chills are even colder and in some cases are in the -30s and -40s across the aforementioned areas. Wind Chill Advisories and Warnings remain in effect until noon today across southern ND and northern MN. The Winter Weather Advisories in northwestern SD will also be set to expire in the next couple of hours.
A light clipper system tracked into northern SD last night and is currently (as of 9:30am CST) putting down some light snows along a corridor stretching from northern SD through far southern MN. Expect this wave to continue to weaken and shift ESE as the day progresses.
Simulated radar through 6pm CST this evening: The narrow corridor of snows stretching from northern ND into southwestern MN will continue to work ESE through the remainder of the morning and gradually pull out of eastern SD by 3pm CST. Current enhanced frontogenesis is helping to produce a tight axis of moderate to heavier snow in far southwestern MN that will linger through this time. However, this wave is quick-moving so expect the snows to eventually pull out of far southeastern MN around 6pm CST this evening.
Additional snowfall through 8pm EST reveals this narrow axis of snow only a couple counties wide will bring a general 1-2.5″ of snow stretching from east-central SD into the southern rows of counties in MN. Northern and western SD can still observe some additional light accumulations, but should stay 0.5″ or less from here on out. No snow expected north of this area through this timeframe.
Another couple of waves of snow are anticipated to impact the region, especially the northern areas, tonight progressing through the day Tuesday and even into Wednesday morning. The first wave with light snow will lift into western ND and northwestern SD mainly after 6pm CST this evening and develop additional snows to the east quickly over the evening across southern ND and far northern SD. It will wait to snow in west-central MN until 6am CST Tuesday, but spread through the central and southern portions of the state during the daytime hours. Watch for the next wave to follow immediately Tuesday afternoon in western ND and working eastward across the state through the remainder of Tuesday. The first wave will exit southeastern MN Tuesday evening (though the model below may be a tad too aggressive in southeastern MN) while the second wave will be tracking into northern MN and clipping northern SD. An arctic front will follow behind the second wave and sending it east and encompassing much of MN late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning before it exits fully to the east by noon Wednesday.
Total snowfall tonight through Wednesday morning: The greatest focus for snows with this event will be across ND, far northeastern SD into Central MN where a general 1-3″ of snow is anticipated. A decent band of frontogenesis will develop with these waves and help to enhance the snowfall rates across the central tier of the region, including the southern portions of ND. Also, given that the temperatures will be far below freezing during this time, these snows are expected to be high-ratio which will easily allow for accumulations. Due to these factors we believe a band of 3-6″ of snow is most likely in southern SD, but also clips far northeastern SD and far west-central MN. This includes Bismarck, Eureka and locations just south of Fargo. Watch for a tight snow gradient just south of Eureka with amounts being less than 1″ for the remainder of SD into southwestern MN.
The active stretch of snow will not be done there as we have an active flow from the West Coast of the US into the southern half of the region that lingers Wednesday night through Friday night, allowing for an additional two waves of snow. The first wave will lift into western SD Wednesday night and quickly skirt to the east across the remainder of SD into southern MN through the nighttime hours and exiting by Thursday afternoon. Then, our last wave which is looking to be more potent, will follow behind and lift into western SD late Thursday that once again glides through the rest of SD while clipping southern ND. Eventually these snows push into the southern two-thirds of MN Friday morning before lifting out Friday night. Accumulations could be approaching 3-6″ of snow with this last wave, but these details will need to be ironed out over the coming days.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days: With these multiple waves working through the region this week, expect liquid amounts to generally hover between 0.1-0.5″ across SD, the southern two-thirds of MN and the southern half of ND. The track for the last two waves Wednesday night through Friday night are easily identifiable and run through SD into southern MN. Definitely an active stretch of snow with multiple systems tracking through the region over the next 5 days.
Temperatures over the next four days: With an upper-level trough positioned over the area through the period, expect below normal temperatures to remain in the area that will result in highs today generally below zero in ND, northern SD and western MN. Temperatures elsewhere will then fall below zero tonight with negative teens in the northeastern areas. Wind chills will fall into the -20s tonight as well.
Here’s a look at wind gusts over the next four days:
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 10 days for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!