Good afternoon! Thanks for checking out today’s hazardous weather blog, brought to you by Mr. Quik Home Services out of Indianapolis! You can rely on Mr. Quik’s team of professionals for all your heating, cooling, plumbing, and electrical needs in your home! With all the rain we have received this winter, sump pumps have been working over-time in Central Indiana Is your sump pump working properly? With more rain in the forecast, it would be a great time to get your sump pump inspected. It may be time to install a new pump! You can also get a battery back-up pump to ensure your basement stays dry after a power outage! Call Mr. Quik today at 317-468-9170! Be sure to “LIKE” Mr. Quik on Facebook for daily weather updates from us at BamWx : https://www.facebook.com/MisterQuik/.
It has been a very wet year so far, with Indianapolis receiving over 7″ of rain already this year! That’s nearly 3″ above normal. In February alone, Indy has already picked up 4.41″. It’s already the wettest February in 125 years.
In just the past 30 days, some areas along the Ohio River have received nearly 10″ of rain! This has caused big flooding along the Ohio River. It has been wet for nearly all of the Midwest.
WHY has there been so much moisture? Why does the pattern look more like La Nina than El Nino? A retracted jet over the Pacific due to negative mountain torque in East Asia has allowed a -PNA (Pacific North America) pattern with a very deep trough over the western U.S., and a strong ridge over the southeast. The jet stream is like a water bed. When it dips way down on one end, downstream it will be the opposite effect. This pattern has been very persistent which has allowed for a strong subtropical jet stream from the equatorial Pacific and combining with Gulf moisture in the East.
The east has been warmer, and the west has been frigid. This pattern has allowed Seattle to their snowiest February on record (over 20″), and their 4th coldest February up to this point.
Looking ahead, we have a very active set-up for the weekend across the Midwest, essentially everyone east of the Rockies! The current energy for this storm is bringing tremendous snow to parts of the southwest (including Los Vegas), and that is the energy that will roll out into the Plains Friday night, then rapidly strengthen into a powerful storm system over the Midwest and Great Lakes this weekend.
Just check out the wind energy with this storm, these are forecast winds ~5,000 feet above the ground Saturday night!
A strong amount of warmth and moisture will get pulled into this storm. You combine that with all the wind energy and lift present and BOOM – you’re set for severe weather. That is an IMPRESSIVE surge of moisture for February. The moisture may be the biggest catalyst in this case in driving the severe storms, not so much the instability.
While damaging wind may ultimately be the biggest threat with this storm, you can also get a few strong tornadoes in the warm sector. Right now the risk looks greatest across the mid-South. This map below shows the probability of the significant tornado parameter (a tool to gauge favorability of a tornado environment), reaching values greater than 1, which would mean an increased tornado potential.
There is also a wintry side to this storm, and that will impact the central Plains and upper Midwest with a band of heavy snow and blizzard conditions likely. Probability of >4″:
Winds REALLY crank-up as the storm will continue to strengthen into a powerhouse over the Great Lakes Sunday. Parts of the Ohio Valley could see high wind warnings with this:
With spring storm season fast approaching, you can stay on top of these systems and remaining wintry risks by subscribing to our service!! We now offer a $50 per year Midwest Extreme Weather Subscription, which is updated during active weather. This will keep you aware of any impactful weather across the Midwest. Sign-up here: https://bamwx.com/register/midwest-extreme-wx-premium/
Does your business deal with snow removal? Run a business that is highly impacted by weather and need detailed forecasts each day with 24/7 on call access to a meteorologist? Inquire bamwx.com/contact-us or e-mail [email protected]! We’d love to help your business. Leave it to us to stress about the forecast!
-Nathan Kitchens
