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Good Tuesday morning! Flood watches remain in place through tonight as additional heavy rainfall is expected to create/exacerbate flooding across the state:
Lots of crazy swings in the weather from today to Wednesday as a sharp frontal boundary moves across the state separating April-level warmth from January-like air. Many areas will get to enjoy mild air for much of the day as rounds of rainfall continue to impact the state. The southeast corner of the state will see the least rain during the day.
As we head into tonight, this is where concerns enter the forecast. SHARPLY colder air will advance eastward with the cold front overnight, and we are watching for the potential of the moisture to freeze over, as well as freezing rain across mainly central, northern, and western portions of the state. Freezing rain denoted by the purple color. I imagine winter weather advisories to be issued at some point today for this risk.
Here is our thinking on where we think the greatest risk is for the moisture to freeze up, as well as freezing rain to create some icing overnight into Wednesday morning. This could create a real headache for travel.
Here is an idea of ice amounts. Some data is a lot more aggressive, but we think this model is much more realistic.
Check out the temperature transition from this afternoon through Wednesday morning:
Widespread 1-2″ of additional rain with some 3″ amounts possible from today through Thursday morning.
Central and northern Illinois will see dry weather return Wednesday afternoon, but rain continues across southern Illinois. The front can’t progress any further southeast due to a strong ridge to our east acting like a wall..so this front remains as more waves of low pressure move through for the rest of the week. Another wave will bring heavier rain to southern Illinois Wednesday night, with a window of some freezing drizzle in central/northern portions of the state after midnight Wednesday night through mid-morning Thursday.
The waves of rain are relentless from Thursday night through Saturday, especially targeting the southern half of the state. It appears Sunday we may finally start to dry out.
Some data shows favorable ingredients to produce severe weather Saturday night, as a stronger area of low pressure works just to our northwest. Something to monitor.
The 7-day rain numbers are just ridiculous for southern Illinois, where 5-6″ of rain is possible. This will cause significant river/stream flooding issues in the days and weeks to come.
