Today’s video:
Things really don’t start to get going until ~10pmEST tonight likely starting as a few light rain showers transitioning to snow by 1amEST from west to east…transitioning to all snow between 1-4amEST. The first wave won’t wind down until noon to 2pmEST Sunday before the cold front swings northwest to southeast bringing in another shot of snowfall along both the front and lake effect. Biggest takeaway here is until we get until ~4-7amEST Sun morning temps will be at or above freezing, so we anticipate the snow that falls to most melt on pavement (can accumulate on grassy/elevated surfaces). It’s after this we should have temps mostly at or below freezing through the duration of the event. Pockets of heavy snow at times will be possible Sunday morning.
Here’s simulated radar of the snow falling along the cold front Sunday afternoon into Sunday night…most of this likely sticks on pavement because of surface temps below freezing so we need to watch for slick spots:
Here’s a skew-t, basically a slice of our entire atmosphere by 1amEST Sunday…when the green and red lines touch that means we have saturation, so at this time we have snow coming down at a good clip across the northern IN districts.
Temperature guidance late tonight through Monday morning shows until ~4-7amEST Sun morning we are above freezing, spending most of Sunday below freezing with temps crashing behind the cold front likely near single digits Monday morning. As it does this, any remaining moisture left on untreated surfaces will definitely refreeze.
*CAVEAT*: if things trends colder quicker at the surface, these accumulations could beef up a bit* – Total snowfall accumulation guidance from the 3km NAM model…the LaPorte district will have the best shot for snow to accumulate the most on pavement because of a longer duration of temps below freezing than the Ft. Wayne district; here 2-4″ is possible with 1-3″ possible across the Ft. Wayne district, basically South Bend east.
